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Do you believe that one gentle flap of a butterfly’s wings can completely change the course of events? Scientists think that all events in the world are connected, so a butterfly flapping its wings at one end of the world causes a change at the other. And that is exactly where the name of this remarkable phenomenon comes from.
The butterfly wing theory (known in English as the Butterfly Effect) describes how a tiny event in one place can set off a chain of random events that lead to a major change somewhere else. The original cause and the (often major) consequence usually have no logical connection.
A tiny flap of a butterfly’s wing often triggers an unpredictable avalanche of events.
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The essence lies in the details!
Did you know that the butterfly effect is one of the seven principles of complexity and was first used in meteorology? Why does this effect matter?
You will certainly come across it in your own business too, and it will probably look something like this:
With great fanfare, you create your own service or product. No matter how brilliant it is, each customer spends no more than 5 seconds looking at it. Yet in that moment, they will undoubtedly notice every little flaw you failed to iron out!
If you are thinking about starting your own business, always keep the butterfly effect in mind! Because the little thing you had no idea about will surface just when you have everything finished. Or at least you think you do. In reality, you may have to start all over again! Overcome the frustration and learn as much as you can about the principle.
💡 Tip: Once you uncover the principle of the butterfly effect, you can master the secret methods of how to get rich and make money!
The history of the butterfly effect, or “It all started with a weather forecast!”
The principle comes from meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who wanted to liven up dry weather forecasting. In 1979, he posed a philosophical question: “Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” Professor Lorenz was also a mathematician, and while calculating the variables affecting forecasts, he discovered that a tiny deviation in the result leads to huge differences in how the weather behaves. He was therefore the first to claim that the flap of a wing on one side of the world can cause a hurricane on the other.
✅ Fun fact: The Lorenz curve, often mentioned in mathematics, has nothing to do with the research of Prof. Edward Lorenz. The Lorenz curve was first described in 1905 in an article by Max Lorenz and illustrated the so-called Methods of Measuring the Concentration of Wealth.
Chaos theory
Meteorologist Lorenz believed that the butterfly effect is closely linked to so-called chaos theory. I will try to explain it to you, both scientifically and in plain terms.
Chaos theory (also known as the theory of change) is a mathematical concept that tells us that chaos is not random at all!
Dynamic systems show a certain inner order. This order is incredibly sensitive to initial conditions. Even if we determine all the input components with 100% certainty, we are unable to predict what happens next. Even a small change at the start causes a huge difference at the end.
📈 Mathematicians add: This behaviour may be chaotic, but it is certainly not random.
All this information leads us back to meteorology, which is perfectly suited to describing chaos theory. Do you know Dylan’s song “Subterranean Homesick Blues”? In it, he sings that “you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”. Yet we pay the best-trained experts. Why? So that we can hear the weather FORECAST from them (after a series of complex calculations).
💡 Tip: Chaos theory is one of the essential pillars of financial literacy!
What does a forecast like this decide?
- We plan outdoor activities around it,
- We choose our clothes for the next day,
- We decide which outdoor activities we will do,
- We plan weekend trips into the countryside.
And then, bang! Instead of sunshine, it pours with rain. But we do not get angry with the whole team of meteorologists or curse them. Because we realise it is an imperfect science. We accept that they can only give us the probability of what will happen, not a definite result.
🎓 Psychologists add: Compared with the past, forecasts are much better, thanks to the development of modern computer systems. But even these cannot beat chaos theory, because unlike them, it is perfect. But no philanthropist will tell you that!
Lorenz’s strange attractor
The best-known example of the butterfly effect is the Lorenz attractor. Prof. Lorenz described the (likely) behaviour of a water wheel where leaky containers “scoop up” the water instead of paddles. He assumed that the wheel would:
- Turn in one direction,
- Or change direction in cycles,
- Or stop completely.
However, because of the leaky containers, the water wheel is unstable and randomly changes its direction of rotation, which cannot be predicted however hard you try. The measurements produced a graph in which the curve never crosses itself and is infinite.
The result, which became known as the Lorenz curve, is a cornerstone of chaos theory.
Lorenz’s ideas and chaos theory
Chaos theory is actually an unintended offspring of the butterfly effect!
Today, the butterfly effect concept is used in various fields to highlight “the great influence of tiny deviations”. This is described, for example, in the 1990 film Havana, in which Robert Redford declares that “a butterfly can flutter its wings over a flower in China and cause a hurricane in the Caribbean”.
However, Professor Lorenz, who lectured at MIT, had no idea that his concept would be explained this way. In fact, he wanted to point out the exact opposite! Read the following quote in the words of Professor Lorenz himself:
“The purpose of the provocative question was to illustrate the idea that some dynamic systems show unpredictable behaviour, so even small deviations in the initial conditions can have a profound impact on the system’s outcomes.”
This very idea then became the foundation of chaos theory (also known as the theory of change). It allowed the famous meteorologist to challenge the famous ideas of Newton and Laplace. What was it about?
Isaac Newton claimed that nature is a mechanical system similar to “clockwork”, meaning without changes or errors. Pierre-Simon Laplace said that unpredictability has no place in the universe. If we knew all the laws of nature, “nothing would be uncertain and the future would be as clear as the past”.
Lorenz noted that a deterministic interpretation of the universe is not possible, because it simply does not take into account errors in human measurement and in solving physical problems. He also said that the relationships between causes and effects in nature are too complex to solve.
He added: “We all live in chaos, and that is how it should be. As a result, we are denied knowledge of all future situations. We do not know what will come, because we do not know what has crept into the course of events along our way and changed it completely. We are all subject to the butterfly effect.”
Non-linear causality
In connection with chaos theory and the butterfly effect, you may also come across the term non-linear causality. What is it?
Non-linear causality extends chaos theory with causal relationships, meaning relationships of cause and effect. However, these relationships are not linear (regular), which leads to unpredictable changes. The result is a dynamic that is prone to chaotic phenomena
In the context of the butterfly effect, non-linear causality explains the fact that an unpredictable outcome does not come from one single cause. It is the result of many consecutive events that follow one another. And there are non-linear relationships even between these individual events. Put simply, we can imagine it as a chain of linked coincidences.
9 examples of the butterfly effect, what does it mean in real life?
The butterfly effect influences every possible aspect of human life. We usually do not even notice it, because we simply cannot tell which of the countless tiny events sent things in a completely different direction.
Below are 9 real-life examples where the butterfly effect plays a role.
Example 1, the butterfly effect in business
The financial market is a thoroughly chaotic place, influenced by tiny changes. This makes predicting the future much harder, because the successes and failures of companies seem random. Periods of economic growth or decline seem to come out of nowhere. And that is exactly the result of “the impact of imperceptible influences”.
Economist Breuer explains: We live in an interconnected, or rather hyperconnected, society in which businesses and markets “behave” like online networks. This triggers complex (chaotic) rather than linear behaviour.
Predicting the future and catching a glimpse of logic in chaos is not easy. Huge companies often collapse, while tiny start-ups rise from the ashes and dominate entire industries. Why? Well, they simply adapted to a “hailstorm” of small changes. The big tycoons fell behind the times and collapsed, while small start-ups know the decisive secret: lots of small changes affecting an existing process change the way people live. They capture the imagination of the moment and then quickly disappear so that they can be replaced by further changes.
In practice, big companies have only two ways to deal with the butterfly effect:
- Build a timeless product that stands the test of time,
- Join the race and keep pace with a series of rapid changes.
A few modern companies try to combine both, for example large footwear companies sell classic (retro) shoes and also offer the latest models alongside them. However, this approach requires extreme vigilance and the company’s ability to respond to consumers’ current needs. Other multinational conglomerates have also tried this kind of combined selling, for example
- Procter & Gamble,
- Unilever,
- Nestlé,
- Apple,
- Samsung.
A well-managed company deliberately introduces small changes into its business strategies (for example in pricing, promotion, production and distribution) to increase its market share and profit in a shorter time. If you are worried about money at the start, try investing small amounts!
Put simply: these giant companies have no time for random interventions that cannot be reliably detected. They would rather create their own “intervention” and build it into their strategy.
Example 2, the butterfly effect in the economy
The international economy can also be seen as a single system in which a small change at one end causes a huge “tornado” at the other. The economy is a highly complex system in which only visible results matter. With the arrival of globalisation and improved communication technologies, the economy is even more interconnected than in the past. A single episode of market volatility can cause problems for the whole system.
📈 Economists emphasise: The butterfly effect in economics concerns the complex impact of small changes. As a result, it is almost impossible to make reliable predictions about the future, or to identify the exact cause of an unexplained change. Long periods of stability are followed by sudden downturns, and vice versa.
An interesting real-life example came from Benoit Mendelbrot, the founder of fractal geometry, who studied the phenomenon of market instability for many years. He gave the example of a company whose shares fell by 40% in a single day (!), followed by a further drop of 4%, before jumping by 10% on the third day. It was literally a typhoon caused by an invisible “butterfly”. When Mendelbrot looked at traditional economic models, he found that something like this should not have been possible at all! Standard models denied the likelihood of dramatic market reversals.
Mendelbrot himself said: According to portfolio theory, the probability of these huge swings is a few millionths of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth. Fluctuations can be observed beyond 10 standard deviations. In reality, a person will see several of these market swings in a lifetime.
The mathematician Hudson compared the difficulty of estimating changes to a cup of hot coffee. He said that “predicting the temperature of the liquid a minute after pouring is impossible, but an hour later it is entirely possible”. He applied the same concept to the market, which changes dramatically in the short term.
✅ Did you know? The 2008 financial crisis came about because economists, when developing computer models to predict the future, did not take the butterfly effect into account. No matter how complex the models were, they could not create an accurate picture, because they did not allow for small changes that could affect the process both at the very start and at any point along the way.
And that is exactly what happened.
💡 Tip: If you want to include the butterfly effect in your marketing strategy, draw up a detailed mind map and stick to it!
Example 3, historical examples of the butterfly effect
A very small change that escapes our notice causes a turn of events that we do not see, and then we feel that chance is responsible for it. If we knew all the laws of nature and the state of the universe at the initial moment, we could predict exactly the situation at the following moment. But even with a command of all the laws of nature, our knowledge of the initial conditions would only be an “approximate estimate”.
This was said by the astronomer Henri Poincaré at the beginning of the 20th century. In human history we find many examples of a small turn of events leading to dramatic change. In several cases, the world we live in would look completely different if things had gone the other way. Here are a few examples of the butterfly effect’s influence on critical events in history:
The bombing of Nagasaki
The USA originally intended to bomb the Japanese city of Kuroko, specifically its munitions depot. On the day of the planned raid, however, it was cloudy and the pilots could not see the depot. The plane circled three more times before giving up and flying away. The inhabitants of Kuroko sat huddled in shelters, waiting for the atomic bomb to fall on them. It never did. The American air forces then chose Nagasaki as their target, because of better visibility. This split-second decision had immeasurable consequences. Can you imagine how different the planet’s history might have been if it had not been for the cloudy weather?
The Academy of Fine Arts Vienna rejects Adolf Hitler’s application
Twice, in fact, it must be said. At the beginning of the 20th century, the young Hitler applied twice to a private art school. He was rejected both times, most likely by a Jewish professor. This humiliation then foreshadowed Hitler’s growing hatred of Jews and led to their genocide. We can only guess what our world would look like if Hitler had been accepted to the school, but historians agree that “if he had been mixing tempera paints instead of committing genocide, the world would have been a far more beautiful place!”
The Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster
You surely know a lot about the 1986 tragedy. A failed test led to an accident in the reactor core of the Chernobyl power plant, which released 400 times more radiation than the bombing of Hiroshima. 115,000 people were evacuated from the area, and the Chernobyl areas are still dangerous for visitors today. But at that time there lived three heroes, Alexei Ananenko, Valeri Bezpalov and Boris Baranov, who volunteered to go down into the basement of the power plant and waded waist-deep through heavy water to the main underwater valves, which they closed. In doing so, they prevented a second explosion that would have (perhaps literally) wiped half of Europe off the map. Ukraine, Kyiv and Vilnius would have become uninhabitable for ever. These men (who probably died soon afterwards from the effects of radiation) stilled the wings of a deadly butterfly.
The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
A little-known fact about the event that served as the catalyst for both world wars is that it almost did not happen at all. Gavrilo Princip failed in the first assassination attempt. He did not throw the grenade far enough, and it exploded behind the archduke’s car, injuring passers-by instead of the passenger. The car’s route was then supposed to be changed, but the driver did not get the message. What does this mean? If the archduke had taken the alternative route, Princip would not have been in the same street as the passing car and would not have had the chance to shoot the statesman and his wife. So the outbreak of two bloody wars was caused by a simple communication failure: the flap of a butterfly’s wing.
Experts add: These examples show how fragile the world is and what a terrible impact seemingly insignificant events can have when they interfere with the course of things.
Example 4, the butterfly effect in psychology
The butterfly effect can also be seen in psychotherapy. Once again, a small change can cause a huge transformation. Imagine, for example, that at a crucial moment a psychotherapist shows a patient a hint of distrust. What happens? The patient closes up and the whole treatment process is ruined! The same applies to a small but excellent piece of advice. It, too, has the power to completely change the outcome of therapy.
✅ Did you know? Even in psychology it is impossible to predict exactly the consequences of behaviour and thinking, so we should always bear in mind that small turns of events cause big changes. And anyone who thinks the butterfly effect does not affect them is either an optimist or a pessimist.
💡 Tip: Do not underestimate the influence of the butterfly effect. Remember that, for example, a single inappropriate photo shared on social media can even end in cyberbullying!
Example 5, the butterfly effect in medicine
Specific cases of the butterfly effect can also be seen in medicine, especially in dermatology. Some may think of a health complaint whose apparent unimportance has far-reaching consequences. Yes, we are talking about acne vulgaris. At one end, a seemingly trivial problem considered a cosmetic imperfection, but at the other end, huge problems with self-esteem and self-perception!
Example 6, the butterfly effect in sociology
Chaos theory and the butterfly effect can be applied to other fields too, including sociology and other social sciences. In the social sciences, chaos theory is the study of complex, non-linear social systems.
🎓 Sociologists add: This is not about disorder, but about a very complex chaos that has its own internal order.
In sociology, studying the butterfly effect matters for identifying a state of balance or imbalance. How does it work? Let us look at an example:
Let us say we have a town of 10,000 people. To meet these people’s needs, a supermarket is built, two swimming pools are installed, and a library and three churches are constructed. In this case, the facilities satisfy everyone and balance is achieved. Then a company decides to open a factory and provide jobs for another 10,000 people. The town keeps growing to accommodate 20,000 people instead of 10,000. Another supermarket is added, along with two more swimming pools, another library and three more churches. Balance is still maintained. Chaos theory studies this balance, the factors that influence this type of cycle, and what happens when the balance is disrupted.
Example 7, the butterfly effect in film
Films are another area where you are guaranteed to come across the butterfly effect. Many of them are built on the very principle of a fateful coincidence. A popular theme, for example, is travelling back in time. Anyone who plays with time and changes just one tiny thing in the past can completely transform the entire present. The 2004 film Osudový dotek is based on this concept too (its original title is, fittingly, The Butterfly Effect).
In film, the butterfly effect is also often linked to a storyline in which the main character boards the wrong plane and ends up in a foreign country, where they eventually stay and become famous for something.
Example 8, the butterfly effect in literature
The concept of the butterfly effect also has a wide range of uses in literature. What could be more appealing to readers than a plot built on a tiny initial deviation in the story?
Some authors go even further and leave the causality of their stories up to the reader. Wondering how that is possible? One answer is the book Rayuela (translated into English as Hopscotch) by the Argentine writer Julio Cortázar. The novel is exceptional because you can read it in many different ways. The chapters are designed to fill in parts of the plot of varying importance, but they do not have to be read in strict chronological order. Following the author’s recommendation at the start, the reader moves between chapters and chooses how the story will unfold.
Example 9, the butterfly effect in everyday life
By now you will have understood that the butterfly effect influences many areas of human activity, from psychology to history. A great deal has also been said about small changes that trigger enormous upheavals. But how can you bring the butterfly effect into your everyday life?
See what tiny things can make a huge difference:
- Stop buying bottled water → you will reduce plastic pollution in the oceans,
- Give up meat (at least for a while) → you will save lots of animals and help restore the balance of the ecosystem,
- Buy energy-saving light bulbs → you will reduce energy consumption,
- Do not leave bags and string on the beach → fewer seals will die,
- Rely less on oil → you will cut its consumption and reduce the risk of oil spills.
See? The butterfly effect is not just something to fear, it can also really help! Think positive!
The butterfly effect in the media, where to learn more?
When we think about it, the butterfly effect is an everyday part of our lives. All you need to do is notice seemingly insignificant events and their eventual impact.
There are plenty of sources where you can learn more about the butterfly effect. Among other things, they answer the questions of why awareness of the butterfly effect is so important and how you can use it to your advantage.
Books about the butterfly effect
Many books have been written about how the butterfly effect works in people’s lives, from novels and biographies to motivational books. The best known include:
- The biography of rapper Kendrick Lamar: The Butterfly Effect: How Kendrick Lamar Ignited the Soul of Black America. It describes how the famous rapper, through his work, ignited and fanned a spark of hope for politically discriminated citizens of the USA.
- The Butterfly Effect: How Your Life Matters is a motivational story about how the butterfly effect can help you gain confidence in difficult decisions.
- The novel The Butterfly Effect by Rachel Mans McKenny tells a story about self-discovery, dealing with relationships and how it is sometimes important to step out of your comfort zone.
✅ Did you know? If you are interested in nature, you might also like the book by Edward D. Melillo, The Butterfly Effect: Insects and the Making of the Modern World. In this case, the title is literal: the book looks at how important butterflies, and insects in general, are for our survival.
The butterfly effect on online platforms
Many media that refer to the butterfly effect are in fact only loosely connected to it. That is why you need to check what they are really about when searching. Inspiring sources that are definitely worth mentioning include:
- The video 5 examples of the butterfly effect that changed the world.
- The podcast American Metamorphosis (in English): an episode on the ecological crisis and its impacts.
- A video explaining the butterfly effect and chaos theory.
